Navigating a new regional order after the Pahalgam attack

The reverberations of the horrific Pahalgam terror attack continue to reshape the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. In its aftermath, India's decisive and unprecedented actions against terror camps across Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK) and within mainland Pakistan have not only served as a powerful retaliatory measure but have also heralded India's emergence as a formidable and assertive power in the region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's resolute leadership during this crisis has solidified his image as a strong and responsible statesman on the global stage. The widely reported, though unconfirmed, strike by India's BrahMos missile on the Dera Noorkhan airbase, allegedly housing Pakistan's nuclear weaponry, sent shockwaves across the region. The seismic tremors felt deep within Pakistan, akin to an earthquake, underscored the potency and reach of India's strategic arsenal. While Islamabad vehemently denied any such strike or damage to its nuclear assets, the very speculation has fundamentally altered the strategic calculus, exposing vulnerabilities previously considered untouchable. Compounding Pakistan's woes, the internal dynamics within its borders are undergoing a dramatic shift. The long-simmering Baloch nationalist movement has seemingly reached a boiling point, with reports suggesting a significant escalation in their struggle for independence. Simultaneously, the people of POK have taken to the streets in large numbers, their cries for liberation from Pakistani rule echoing across the valleys. These widespread and sustained protests are a stark indicator of the deep-seated resentment against Islamabad's administration and a yearning for self-determination.

Furthermore, the Pashtun population along the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands also exhibits growing discontent with Pakistan's policies, adding another layer of instability to the already fragile nation. Adding to Pakistan's isolation, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, once considered an ally, has turned hostile, particularly after Pakistan's recent expulsion orders targeting Afghan nationals. This dramatic downturn in relations has deprived Pakistan of a crucial strategic depth and further emboldened its adversaries.

In this dramatically altered regional scenario, India finds itself in an unprecedented position of strength. The decisive military response, coupled with the internal turmoil within Pakistan, has significantly enhanced India's strategic leverage. This commanding position presents a unique opportunity for New Delhi to recalibrate its foreign policy and address long-standing geopolitical challenges.

One of the most significant opportunities lies in India's engagement with China. The ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, Beijing's flagship connectivity project, has faced considerable headwinds, particularly due to its contentious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) component that traverses through POK, an Indian territory occupied by Pakistan and Baluchistan. With Baluchistan's potential separation from Pakistan and India's enhanced control over POK, the strategic map for OBOR in this crucial region could be redrawn.

India should seize this moment to initiate negotiations with China, offering assurances of safety and cooperation for OBOR projects within Gilgit Baltistan (POK) if it's integrated to Indian territories in exchange for areas occupied by China in Ladakh region and access to tangible benefits for its northern states through OROB. This could include enhanced connectivity, infrastructure development, and trade opportunities. Given the current complexities in US-China relations, Beijing can ill-afford to ignore India, its largest neighbour and a significant global market. New Delhi should strategically leverage these global dynamics to advance its regional interests and ensure its security and well-being.

Moreover, India can also benefit from China's experience in dealing with radical Islamist elements. While India's approach to its Muslim minority has historically been one of integration and inclusivity, understanding the nuances of managing radical ideologies is crucial in the current volatile regional environment. Engaging in dialogue with China on this front, could provide valuable insights into countering cross-border terrorism and maintaining internal security.

However, India must tread cautiously. While the current situation presents opportunities, it also carries inherent risks. A weakened and internally fractured Pakistan could become even more unpredictable, potentially leading to desperate measures. India must maintain a robust security posture and remain vigilant to any potential escalation.

Furthermore, engaging with China requires a nuanced and strategic approach. While cooperation on OBOR projects within India's territory could be mutually beneficial, New Delhi must remain firm on its sovereignty concerns and ensure that any engagement does not compromise its strategic autonomy or long-term interests. Balancing economic opportunities with security imperatives will be key to navigating this complex relationship.

The emergence of a potentially independent Baluchistan also presents a complex set of considerations. While India has historically supported the Baloch people's aspirations for self-determination, it must carefully consider the implications of a new nation on its western border. Ensuring stability and fostering positive relations with a future Baloch state will be crucial for regional security and economic connectivity. Baluchistan could be a boon for north Indian landlock states through OROB project, as it will be accessible from Ports on its coast.

Similarly, though the POK issue is long pending and warrants immediate solution in the wake of recent developments, the evolving situation in POK demands a calibrated approach. While the protests reflect the local population's desire for liberation from Pakistan, India must carefully consider the political and security implications of any potential shift in the region's status, especially with Pakistan's nukes.

In conclusion, the post-Pahalgam attack scenario has propelled India into a position of unprecedented regional influence. Prime Minister Modi's decisive leadership has been instrumental in this transformation. However, this newfound strength comes with significant responsibilities. India will now have to navigate a complex and rapidly evolving regional order with more wisdom, strategic foresight, and a commitment to long-term peace and stability. Engaging with China on OBOR, addressing internal dynamics within Pakistan and POK, and fostering positive relationships with emerging entities like Baluchistan will be crucial in shaping a secure and prosperous future for the region, with India at its helm as a responsible and powerful leader on the world stage. The path ahead requires a delicate balance of assertiveness and diplomacy, ensuring that India's rise benefits not only itself but also contributes to the collective well-being of South Asia.